Leis de crescimento de Kaldor

Content

Relação econômica entre crescimento na fabricação e crescimento da economia mais ampla
Não deve ser confundido com os fatos de Kaldor.

As leis de crescimento de Kaldor são uma série de três leis relacionadas à causa do crescimento econômico.

Olhando para os países do mundo agora e com o tempo Nicholas Kaldor observou uma alta correlação entre os padrões de vida e a parcela de recursos dedicados à atividade industrial, pelo menos até algum nível de renda. Somente a Nova Zelândia, a Austrália e o Canadá ficaram ricos enquanto confiam principalmente na agricultura. Ele propôs três leis sobre essas regularidades empíricas:

The growth of the GDP is positively related to the growth of the manufacturing sector. This is perhaps better stated in terms of GDP growth being faster the greater the excess of growth of industrial growth relative to GDP growth: that is when the share of industry in GDP is rising.The productivity of the manufacturing sector is positively related the growth of the manufacturing sector (this is also known as Verdoorn's law). Here the argument is that there are increasing returns to scale in manufacturing. These may be static—where the larger the size of the sector the lower the average costs—or dynamic via the induced effect that output growth has on capital accumulation and technical progress. Learning by doing effects are also likely to be important.The productivity of the non-manufacturing sector is positively related to the growth of the manufacturing sector. This last law is the least intuitive and is based on the argument that the non-industrial sector has diminishing returns to scale. As resources are moved out the average productivity of those that remain will rise.

Thirlwall (2003, p123-124) também relata o destaque de Kaldor de três proposições subsidiárias que também são importantes para levar em consideração. Eles são:

That as the scope for the increasing returns sector to absorb the labour from the diminishing returns sector reduces so too will the rate of growth of GDP.That in the early stages of industrialisation the demand comes from the agricultural sector—but in the later stages export demand is likely to drive the process. Here the limited size of the internal market is likely to be such as to limit the realisation of economies of scale and there is the need for generating foreign exchange to import necessary inputs.A virtuous circle can be generated by export growth and output growth but that this is difficult to establish as it is likely to depend on exceptional enterprise, protection or subsidy.